A Deal to Reopen Hormuz Is on Paper. Trump Hasn't Signed It. Here's What That Actually Means for Your Freight.

Today brought the most significant development in the Strait of Hormuz crisis since it began in February. The White House confirmed that U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached agreement on a Memorandum of Understanding, and the reported terms describe a real path out of three months of closure. This is not another vague statement about productive talks. There is a document, there are specific terms, and the principals are reportedly close to signing.

It is also still not signed, the two sides are still arguing over language, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired warning shots at four vessels near the strait the same day the agreement was announced. So this post does two things. It lays out what the deal actually says, because the terms matter. And it explains why none of it should change what you do with your freight this week.

What the MOU reportedly contains

According to Channel 12 and Axios, citing senior U.S. officials, the Memorandum of Understanding agreed by negotiators includes a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, unrestricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and the removal of Iranian mines from the waterway within 30 days. Under the reported terms, Washington eases its naval blockade of Iranian ports in parallel with Tehran restoring full international shipping through the strait.

The nuclear piece, which was conspicuously absent from earlier versions of this story, is now reportedly in the deal. The 60-day window would be used for talks on Iran's nuclear program, and U.S. officials say the agreement would lead to Iran disposing of its enriched uranium stockpile, though exactly how that happens is still under discussion. A senior U.S. official said Washington understood Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, had endorsed the broad template of the deal. Iran's Tasnim news agency said shipping through the strait could return to pre-war levels within 30 days.

Taken together, that is a genuine framework for ending the crisis. If it gets signed and implemented as described, the freight implications are large and positive, and the months of Cape routing and land bridges would start to unwind over the back half of the year.

Why IS IT not done?

Now, the reasons not to act on it yet are substantial.

First, Trump has not signed. A U.S. official, confirmed by the White House, said the President wants to take a couple of days to think about it before deciding. Vice President Vance described the signing as TBD and said the two countries are still negotiating over a couple of language points. One senior official said the deal would not be signed over the weekend because, in the official's words, the Iranian system did not move fast enough. An MOU that the principals have not signed and that is still being wordsmithed is not a binding agreement. It is an advanced draft.

Second, the strait is still actively dangerous. On the same day the agreement was announced, Iran's IRGC navy said it fired warning shots at four vessels near the Strait of Hormuz that were reportedly attempting to transit. Whatever the negotiators have agreed on paper, the conditions on the water have not changed. Ships are still being warned off, and the blockade is still up.

Third, there is a sub-plot over tolls that tells you how unsettled the details still are. Treasury Secretary Bessent threatened Treasury action against Oman if it supported Iran in tolling the strait, then later said he had received assurances from Oman that it does not plan to toll the waterway. The fact that the U.S. is publicly threatening a neighbouring country over toll arrangements days before a supposed signing is a sign that the operational specifics are still being fought over, not finalized.

The 30-day mine number does not add up

Here is the detail that should make any freight planner cautious. The MOU reportedly commits to removing Iranian mines from the strait within 30 days. Last month, the Pentagon told lawmakers that clearing the strait of mines after the war ends could take up to six months.

Those two numbers cannot both be right. Mine-hunting is slow, methodical work, and Iranian officials have acknowledged losing track of some of the mines they laid. A 30-day commitment in a diplomatic document is a political timeline. The Pentagon's six-month estimate is an operational one. When a negotiated promise and a military assessment disagree by a factor of six, the safe assumption for planning purposes is that the longer one is closer to reality. Cargo does not move through a waterway because a document says the mines will be gone. It moves when the mines are actually gone, and someone is willing to ensure the transit.

And insurance remains the other gate. War-risk premiums for a Hormuz transit went from about 0.25% of vessel value before the conflict to between 3% and 8% now. The U.S. government stood up a reinsurance backstop sized at up to $40 billion to get ships moving, and it has written zero policies, because the constraint was never the availability of cover. Insurers have said they want to see months of demonstrated stability before they normalize terms. A signed MOU starts that clock. It does not skip it.

What to do with your freight this week

Nothing. That is the honest answer, and today's news is the reason for it rather than an argument against it. Keep your Cape of Good Hope routing in place. Keep your land bridge arrangements. Do not cancel bookings, and do not build a Hormuz reopening into your Q3 landed cost models.

The logic is straightforward. If the deal gets signed and the strait genuinely reopens, it will happen in phases over months, and you will have ample warning to adjust in an orderly way. If it falls apart over the nuclear details, the uranium disposal mechanics, or Iran's insistence on managing the strait, you will be glad you kept your contingencies in place. Acting now on an unsigned MOU has no upside scenario that beats simply waiting for it to be real.

The near-term cost picture also has not improved, regardless of the diplomacy. Mid-May general rate increases pushed transpacific rates up more than 10% on both lanes. Carriers are rolling out roughly $2,000 per FEU peak season surcharges for June, and blank sailings are running at 10 to 15% to support those increases. Amazon moved Prime Day from July to June, pulling volume forward and starting peak season early. Your costs for the next quarter are set by the rate environment in front of you, not by an MOU awaiting a signature.

The three things that would change the picture

Watch for three specific developments in order. Trump's signature on the MOU, which turns a draft into a commitment. The mines actually coming out of the water, which is the physical precondition for safe transit. And the warning shots stop, which is the simplest real-world signal that the strait is open in practice and not just on paper. Until all three happen, this is a very good headline sitting on top of a waterway that is still closed.

We are tracking the signing, the carrier surcharge filings, and conditions in the strait daily. If you want a current read on how this applies to your specific lanes, or help stress-testing your plan against both a signed deal and a collapse, reach out to your ShipTech account manager.