Global Trade Hits the Brakes as Pre-Tariff Rush Ends

The surge in global merchandise trade witnessed earlier this year is beginning to wane as the rush to beat new U.S. tariffs subsides, according to the latest data from the World Trade Organization (WTO). In a report released on November 28, the WTO announced that its goods trade barometer dipped to 101.8 in September, down from 102.2 in June. While a reading above 100 still indicates growth in line with medium-term trends, the decline signals an apparent moderation in global commerce.

Much of the trade activity earlier in 2025 was driven by "front-loading," a strategy in which American importers accelerated orders to avoid paying the 10% or more tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on major trading partners. This rush temporarily inflated shipping volumes, particularly in airfreight and container shipping. While these transport sectors continue to expand, the WTO notes they are now cooling off. Elsewhere in the economy, the automotive and electronics sectors have stabilized, and new export orders are improving, though the agriculture sector remains in contraction.

The tariffs are causing a massive shuffle in where products actually come from. U.S. imports from China sank 22% through August, but buyers just took that business elsewhere to skirt the fees. The result was a massive spike for other countries—Vietnam, India, Thailand, Malaysia, and Taiwan all saw their shipments jump by more than 20% as they picked up the slack.

With the pre-tariff shopping spree winding down, the WTO is dialling back its forecast. They see trade growth cooling to 2.4% in 2025—down from 2.8% in 2024—and hitting the brakes even harder next year, with a prediction of just 0.5% growth. Ultimately, the WTO concluded that the current indices point to a general moderation in global trade growth.