The Carriers Stopped Waiting on Hormuz. Their Land Bridges Are the Real Forecast for the Rest of 2026.
MSC's first Europe-to-Gulf land bridge service departed Antwerp on May 10. The route runs through Germany, Italy, Lithuania, and Spain before transiting the Suez Canal into the Red Sea. From there, vessels call at Jeddah and King Abdullah Port on Saudi Arabia's western coast. Cargo is transferred to trucks for an 800-mile journey across the Arabian Peninsula, passing through Riyadh, to reach Dammam on the eastern coast. Hapag-Lloyd built similar overland corridors across Saudi Arabia and Oman back in March. Other major carriers are following.
The Journal of Commerce captured what this means in a single line this week: these services represent an acknowledgement by the liners that Hormuz will remain a no-go zone for the foreseeable future. Container shipping companies do not build 800-mile trucking corridors as backup plans. They build them when they have concluded the alternative is not coming back. That is the most honest forecast for the rest of 2026 the market has produced so far, and it does not come from a press release or a diplomatic statement. It comes from where the money is actually being spent.
The numbers two months in
As of this week, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine has confirmed 22,500 mariners are trapped on more than 1,550 commercial vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the strait has been running at approximately 5% of its pre-war average across April, according to Kpler vessel transponder data. Of the 53 container ships from the world's top carriers initially caught inside the Persian Gulf when the crisis began on February 28, only nine have successfully exited. Two of those required a second attempt. Two MSC vessels were seized by Iran. One additional vessel sustained damage from debris. That leaves 42 vessels, their crews, and their cargo in indefinite limbo two months on.
The CMA CGM San Antonio was attacked while transiting the strait this week. The French carrier confirmed crew members were injured, evacuated, and given medical care. The incident is the latest in an ongoing pattern. On May 4, Trump's Project Freedom — a U.S.-guided transit corridor announced to help stranded vessels exit the strait — was paused. The same day, the IRGC issued fresh threats against shipping in what observers described as a further breach of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. USS Truxtun and USS Mason transited the strait that Monday in a demonstration of U.S. naval presence, but the gesture did not translate into a sustained reopening of commercial transit.
Why the land bridges signal something different
Carriers have absorbed disruption before. Red Sea diversions, Panama Canal drought, COVID-era port congestion, the 2021 Suez blockage. In each case, the operational response was rerouting and waiting. The Cape of Good Hope route around the Red Sea, for instance, has been the default for 18 months, but no carrier has built permanent infrastructure to bypass Suez. The expectation has been that Suez eventually normalizes. Land bridges around Hormuz are different. They are not waiting. They are investing in physical infrastructure — truck capacity, port handling agreements, cross-border permitting, customs clearance arrangements — that only makes economic sense if the disruption is going to last.
MSC's investment is substantial. The Antwerp-to-Dammam routing adds significant transit time and cost compared to direct Persian Gulf delivery. It requires reliable trucking capacity across Saudi Arabia, intermediate handling at King Abdullah Port, and customs clearance for cargo crossing into Saudi territory from the maritime leg. None of that is built for a six-week disruption. It is built for a six-month or twelve-month disruption, and that is the time horizon the carriers are now planning around.
Hapag-Lloyd's March move was the early signal. The carrier established overland transport corridors across Saudi Arabia and Oman more than two months before MSC's Antwerp service launched, which suggests German management saw the structural nature of the crisis before most of the market. The Journal of Commerce reported this week that Hapag-Lloyd is now positioning to fill the booking gaps left by the Gemini alliance suspension on certain Gulf services. The carrier that moved first on alternative routing is now picking up the volume from carriers that did not.
The Middle East is building its own alternatives
The structural shift is not just at the carrier level. Middle Eastern governments are investing in alternative logistics corridors that bypass Hormuz entirely. Türkiye's Transport Minister confirmed this week that the country is actively developing land and sea routes through the Middle Corridor — the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route connecting China through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye to Europe. Cargo volume on that corridor increased more than 25 times in 2024 compared to 2023 and is accelerating further this year.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman are expanding eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea port capacity. Ports just outside the strait, particularly in Oman and along the UAE's eastern coast, are reporting surges in diverted container volumes. The South China Morning Post described the development as a 'structural shift' in regional logistics, not a temporary workaround. These are the kind of investments that get planned around five-year and ten-year horizons, not 90-day contingencies.
What this means for shippers in practical terms
If your supply chain planning has been built around a Hormuz reopening in Q3 or Q4 of this year, the assumption is no longer defensible. The carriers have changed their planning horizon. The Middle Eastern governments have changed their planning horizon. The freight market has changed its planning horizon. Holding onto an earlier assumption because it was comfortable is not a strategy.
There are three practical consequences worth working through. First, land bridge routing is now a real option, not a theoretical one. For time-sensitive cargo with sufficient margin, the premium for routing through Saudi Arabia or Oman is worth pricing into your decision-making. For bulk commodities and low-value goods, the math is harder and the right call may be extended delivery timelines or sourcing alternatives. Either way, the analysis needs to be done, not deferred.
Second, service contract negotiations for 2026-2027 need to be priced against a sustained disruption scenario, not a near-term resolution. The bunker fuel volatility, the war risk premiums, the inland surcharges, and the equipment availability constraints are all moving on the assumption Hormuz stays effectively closed through at least the end of the year. Contracts signed against a more optimistic baseline will look very different by Q3 than they did at signing.
Third, the all-in landed cost of getting cargo into the Gulf is now meaningfully higher than it was in February. War risk surcharges, emergency fuel surcharges, inland haulage fees, and land bridge premiums are stacking. Anyone calculating exposure on ocean freight alone is underestimating by a margin that has grown over the last two months and is unlikely to compress soon.
A note on the Suez signal
One development worth tracking. The Suez Canal Authority confirmed the passage of an ultra-large containership through the Red Sea this week, the first cautious signal that Asia-Europe routing through Suez may be edging toward viability again. Major carriers have not announced a return to Suez routing, and the situation remains too volatile to commit to schedules. But the directional indicator matters. A partial reopening of Suez does not solve Hormuz, but it could relieve some of the pressure on the Cape of Good Hope routing and allow Asia-Europe transit times to compress. That is worth watching over the next several weeks.
How ShipTech can help
Our team is working with clients on routing alternatives, landed cost modeling, and contract negotiation strategy in the current environment. If your import program touches the Gulf or you want to model land bridge routing against your current ocean freight commitments, reach out to your ShipTech account manager. The earlier the analysis gets done, the more options remain on the table.