The Strait of Hormuz Is Closed: What Asia-North America Shippers Must Do Now
The global freight market is facing one of its most significant geopolitical disruptions in the history of container shipping. Following joint U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran beginning February 28, the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply and 20% of global LNG passes, is effectively closed. On March 2, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officially confirmed the closure. By March 5, protection and indemnity insurance had been withdrawn from the region entirely, making commercial transit economically unviable for most vessel operators, and tanker traffic has since dropped to near zero.
At ShipTech Logistics, we are actively monitoring developments across all affected corridors and have prepared this briefing for customers and partners operating on Asia-North America trade lanes.
What Makes This Crisis Different
The industry has navigated chokepoint disruptions before, most recently the Red Sea crisis that has constrained Suez Canal routing since late 2023. The Strait of Hormuz closure, however, represents a structurally different category of risk, and understanding that distinction is critical for supply chain planning.
The Red Sea has a bypass. The Cape of Good Hope route adds 10 to 14 days and significant fuel costs, but cargo still moves. The Strait of Hormuz has no equivalent. It is the sole maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, and when it closes, Gulf ports are simply cut off. DP World's Jebel Ali, which handled 15.5 million TEU in 2024 and serves as the primary transshipment hub for the entire Middle East region, has no alternative outlet. Cargo does not move more slowly; it stops.
What compounds the severity of the current moment is that this closure is not happening in isolation. Houthi forces in the Red Sea resumed attacks on commercial vessels on February 28, reversing the limited progress made after the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire and causing Suez Canal transits, which had been recovering, to drop sharply again. According to industry sources, this is the first time in container shipping history that both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea chokepoints have been simultaneously disrupted, a convergence that removes two of the world's most important maritime shortcuts from the routing equation at once.
The Situation on the Ground
The operational consequences are significant and still developing. At the outset of the crisis, Vizion estimated that approximately 132 container vessels, representing around 501,000 TEU of capacity, were trapped in the Persian Gulf, carrying cargo valued at just under $4 billion, with roughly 22,000 TEU, valued at an estimated $877 million, destined for the U.S. or Europe. All four of the world's largest container carriers, Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, have suspended Gulf transits and are rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 3,500 to 4,000 nautical miles and 10 to 14 days to affected voyage times.
Energy markets have responded sharply. Brent crude briefly spiked to $119 per barrel on March 9 before retracing below $100, and analysts at multiple institutions warn that prices could remain elevated in the $100 to $130 per barrel range if disruptions persist. War risk premiums have risen in kind. Prior to the escalation, premiums for Hormuz transits stood at approximately 0.25% of insured hull and machinery value; industry sources now indicate that figure could reach 0.5% or higher, effectively doubling the insurance cost for a single transit on a standard container vessel. Empty equipment is also becoming trapped in the Middle East, a development that will tighten equipment availability across Asia in the coming weeks and add pressure to booking lead times globally.
Freight Rate Outlook: What Shippers Are Seeing Now
The impact on freight rates is already visible and moving quickly. According to the Drewry World Container Index, Transpacific spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles climbed approximately 10% to around $2,402 per FEU in the week ending March 5, while Shanghai to New York rates increased approximately 7% to $2,977 over the same period. These figures are expected to rise further as surcharges and fuel costs filter through carrier pricing.
Carrier surcharges are compounding the rate environment. Hapag-Lloyd has applied a War Risk Surcharge of $1,500 per TEU on all bookings to and from Gulf ports, effective March 2. Maersk has implemented an emergency freight increase on all future Gulf-related bookings under its Bill of Lading terms. CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have both announced emergency fuel surcharges of $70 to $75 per TEU for regional transits and $150 per TEU for long-haul voyages, effective March 23, with other carriers expected to follow. Analysts at Xeneta note that rising fuel costs and war-risk surcharges will place upward pressure on rates across all major trade lanes if congestion develops at Far East transshipment hubs, a pattern that played out during the Red Sea crisis. Underlying demand on Transpacific lanes remains relatively soft, which may limit how fully announced GRI levels hold, but the directional pressure is clearly upward.
What This Means for Your Supply Chain
The implications of this disruption extend well beyond freight rates. On the routing side, the Cape of Good Hope reroute adds significant time and cost to voyages that touch the Middle East or Indian Subcontinent, and the indirect effects on Transpacific services, including congestion, equipment shortages, and capacity withdrawals, are expected to build over the coming weeks. One logistics analyst cited in recent industry reporting estimated that diverted containers typically arrive in clusters within two to five weeks, driving terminal congestion and drayage demand that can outpace available truck and chassis capacity at destination ports.
Commodity exposure is another dimension worth examining carefully. The disruption extends well beyond oil: petrochemical inputs, plastics, rubber, electronics, pharmaceuticals, aluminum, and fertilizers all transit the Strait. For ShipTech customers handling plastic containers, consumer goods, and medical products, which are core commodity categories in our freight portfolio, now is the time to review inventory buffers and reorder lead times in light of potential service delays. Air freight is not a neutral alternative, either. Gulf carriers Qatar Airways and Emirates SkyCargo, two of the three largest air cargo carriers by capacity, have been significantly affected by regional airspace closures. Air cargo rates from South Asia to North America have risen approximately 50% since the start of the conflict, according to Freightos Air Index data, with China-to-U.S. rates up roughly 20%.
Finally, any change in routing or port of entry introduces customs and compliance risk that should not be overlooked. Importers considering alternative ports should confirm duty treatment, tariff classification implications, and any Section 122 or IEEPA applicability before committing to changes, particularly given the evolving regulatory landscape that ShipTech has been closely tracking through 2026.
How ShipTech Logistics Can Help
ShipTech's integrated approach to freight forwarding and customs brokerage positions us to respond to fast-moving market conditions directly on behalf of our clients. Our proprietary tracking platform provides real-time cargo visibility across sea, rail, and truck, so customers are never without information during a disruption. Our freight team is actively working with ocean carrier partners to secure competitive routing alternatives on affected lanes, leveraging consolidated volumes and buying power to maintain competitive pricing even as the broader market tightens. Where routing changes are under consideration, our customs brokerage specialists can assess the duty and tariff implications before commitments are made, helping clients avoid the unexpected landed cost surprises that are common when supply chains shift rapidly under pressure. For clients who want a fuller picture, we can model the complete cost impact of alternative routings, including port fees, inland drayage, surcharge exposure, and tariff changes, so decisions are made with full transparency rather than partial information.
Planning Assumptions for the Months Ahead
The underlying conflict involves a complex set of geopolitical actors and offers no clear path to rapid resolution. Supply chain planning should assume that current Middle East disruptions persist for at least 3 to 6 months and treat any earlier resolution as a positive outcome rather than a baseline assumption. Businesses that build contingency into their inventory strategy, freight commitments, and compliance posture now will be better positioned than those waiting for clarity that may not arrive on a useful timeline.
ShipTech will continue publishing trade updates as the situation evolves. If you are a current customer with questions about specific shipments, routing alternatives, or tariff exposure, reach out to your dedicated account manager directly.